Russia Now Has a ‘Fuel Crisis’ Problem Thanks to Ukraine’s Drone War

 Ukraine's Drone Strikes Are Triggering a 'Fuel Crisis' in Russia

Key Points - Ukraine's sustained drone campaign against Russia's oil infrastructure is beginning to work, triggering a domestic "fuel crisis" and disrupting Moscow's lucrative energy exports.

-The deep strikes have successfully taken 15-20% of Russia's fuel production offline, forcing a ban on gasoline exports and creating fuel lines within parts on the country.

-This strategy, reportedly inspired by a WWII special operations manual, aims to cripple Russia's ability to supply its military.

-However, Russia is already looking east, securing a new "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline deal with China to mitigate the economic pressure.

Are Ukraine's Drone Strikes Working?

In recent weeks, Ukraine has been using drones to strike Russia’s oil infrastructure.

And according to a new report, there are signs that it’s beginning to work.

What We Know 

As reported by Politico’s European arm, the most recent strikes have “triggered a fuel crisis and halted Moscow’s lucrative gas exports.”

This has succeeded in striking a blow at what Politico called Russia’s important strategic industry, and Politico reports that between 15 and 20 percent of Russia’s fuel production is now offline.

The story quoted three European officials as stating that they believe “a combination of sanctions and targeted disruption would press Putin to come to the table.”

Most recently, Ukrainian drones have successfully targeted the Krasnodar and Syzran plants, which produce an estimated 11 million metric tons of gasoline annually.

“You have lines for petrol in Russia … because the Ukrainians with their deep strikes were able to disrupt the oil deliveries,” EU’s ambassador to Ukraine, Katarína Mathernová, told the publication. “So this kind of pressure works, and we just need to keep at it and not get sidetracked.”

As a result, Politico said, Russia has had to continue a previously announced ban on gasoline sales abroad into September.

The destruction of the capacity at Ryazan and Lukoil’s Volgograd refineries have “pushed an estimated 700–750,000 barrels a day of capacity offline, or about 10 percent of total [production],” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at intelligence firm Kpler told Politico.

Disrupted Refineries

Reuters had reported in late August that Russia had “revised up its crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day,” following the disruption of refinery operations by Ukrainian drone strikes.

Because the refinery disruptions make it more difficult to refine the oil, Russia will export the crude itself.

"Attacks are ongoing and repair deadlines change daily. It’s unclear how much Russia can load this month or next,” one person told Reuters.

The Architect

The Politico story attributes the strategy to Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. And he had an unlikely inspiration.

Philip Ingram, a former British army intelligence officer, told Politico that Budanov was inspired by an old Allied Special Operations Executive manual from World War II and decided to apply it to Ukraine’s war with Russia.

“Attacking the Russians at an operational level, targeting their ability to continue the tactical battle by supplying the military materials and manpower,” Ingram said of the strategy.

China to the Rescue?

However, there was another major development on the Russian gas front this week. During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China this week, the two countries announced a deal to construct a new gas pipeline.

According to CNBC, the two sides have agreed to build the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which will “transit gas reserves in Russia’s West Siberia to northern China via eastern Mongolia.” Mongolia is a party to the agreement as well.

The agreement was described as a “legally binding deal,” which followed a long period of discussion.

The Interfax news agency had the official announcement.

“This project will make it possible to supply 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Russia with transit through Mongolia,” Alexei Miller, the CEO of Russia’s state-owned Gazprom, said in the announcement, which also said that the agreement was for 30 years.

The price of gas under the agreement has not yet been determined, nor was there any announcement of when the pipeline might be completed.

"We must recall when the decision was made to build Power of Siberia 2 and the Soyuz-Vostok gas pipeline. They were made even before the Power of Siberia trunk pipeline was put into operation [in 2019], even before supplies of Russian gas to China physically began,” Miller said, per Interfax.