Hurricane threat to US as new models show Gulf storm reaching Category 1

 Hurricane forecasters have warned that the looming Gulf storm may now reach hurricane strength this week as it nears millions along the US coast.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts that Tropical Storm Isaias could emerge at any moment, giving the storm a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

The storm is just south of Texas in the southwestern corner of the Gulf of America, and new models show Isaias making landfall in the US by Saturday - directly impacting Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

One weather prediction model created using Google's DeepMind AI systems estimated that Isaias has a 57 percent chance of growing into at least a Category 1 hurricane, with winds exceeding 75mph.

There is even a slim chance that the tropical cyclone could quickly strengthen into a major hurricane, meaning it could explode into at least a Category 3 storm, with devastating winds over 111mph.

AccuWeather has warned that hurricane-force winds are expected to hit the US Gulf Coast throughout the weekend, but the impact of Isaias will not stop there.

The weather service has projected widespread downpours and flooding throughout the Gulf and Southeast this weekend, with the highest risk coming in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas and the Florida Panhandle.

Heavy rain, damaging winds and a risk of isolated tornadoes are also expected to threaten Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and southern Ohio this weekend.

As of Tuesday, no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic this year, and AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Meteorologist, Alex DaSilva, said the odds are still against Isaias becoming a monster storm.

However, the looming tropical cyclone will likely still be strong enough to overpower shearing winds which have been breaking up the development of other hurricanes throughout the summer.

DaSilva said in a statement: 'We expect this mass of showers and thunderstorms to overcome wind shear and evolve into a tropical depression or storm.'

'Due to prevailing steering winds, the most likely path would be to the north-northeast toward the U.S. later this week with landfall along the central Gulf Coast this weekend,' he added.

Despite strong winds pushing against Isaias, forecasters still expect the heart of the storm to pass over Alabama and the surrounding Gulf Coast states, bringing damaging wind gusts of 40 to 60mph through Sunday.

Up to eight inches of rain is expected to fall along the Gulf Coast and in isolated pockets of Georgia and North Carolina between now and October 12 as bands of moisture from the approaching storm continue moving into the US.

Between one and four inches of rain will blanket a wider area of the country from New Orleans to the Mid-Atlantic states of Maryland and Delaware this week.

AccuWeather's worst-case scenario warns that the potential tropical storm could dump as much as 25 inches of rain in most affected areas in the South. 

If Isaias were to beat the odds and grow into a hurricane, it would set a new record for the latest date the first hurricane of the year formed.

There have only been two years on record in which a hurricane failed to develop in the Atlantic, 1907 and 1914.

The historic downturn in hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year has been fueled by the impact of a 'super El Niño' on the other side of the US.

El Niño is the widely used name for a natural weather phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean become abnormally warm.

This flips weather patterns around the globe, causing the normally chaotic hurricane season along the US East Coast to fizzle before storms have a chance to grow.

AccuWeather noted that the Gulf of America is still extremely warm and capable of providing the fuel for a tropical storm or hurricane to develop - with water temperatures hovering around a scorching 86 degrees Fahrenheit currently.

However, the increasing wind shear throughout the region has knocked down every storm which has formed during hurricane season, which ends on November 30.

Still, climate experts have previously warned that fast-moving tropical cyclones can erupt and reach major hurricane status in less than a week.

Ken Graham, the director of NOAA's National Weather Service, warned before the 2025 hurricane season: 'Every Category 5 [hurricane] that has ever hit this country was a tropical storm or less three days prior.'